##### Modeling Simulation and Software (MS2)

##### 2021

# BALLISTIC VALIDATION TESTING WITH CONFIDENCE SPECIFICATIONS

#### Abstract

Ballistic protection requirements often call out a minimum probability of
no penetration against a projectile fired at a specified velocity with a required
confidence level. For example, 90% confidence of 90% probability of protection
at 2,900 fps. This paper describes a potential testing algorithm to maximize
confidence in the resulting test data, and validation of the algorithm through
Monte Carlo simulation. The algorithm uses a two-step process – a brief initial
V50 test, followed by testing at velocities calculated to maximize the likelihood of
validating the ballistic requirement within a given number of shots. The algorithm
is based on straightforward confidence calculations based on the generalized
likelihood ratio, does not require the generation of a zone of mixed results, and
eliminates the velocity tolerance commonly used to discriminate valid and invalid
shots. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the algorithm may bias the
confidence calculations.